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| what is really going on with the weather | Rate Topic |
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| Posted by blackfox: Sun Jan 6th, 2013 12:38 | 1st Post |
its really weird we all have seen last years weather all over the news ,but its definetly having a effect on wildlife to .heres a picture i took of a merganser at conway rspb reserve on friday ,for those that don't know the area its on the top of the north wales coastline nestling below the mountains of snowdonia . if you closely at the photo you can see just above the mergansers head unfortunately in the bokah area of the pic .A DRAGONFLY .never seen one at this time of the year before .unreal or what  THE JANUARY DRAGON by black fox wildlife photography, on Flickr
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| Posted by jk: Sun Jan 6th, 2013 13:27 | 2nd Post |
| If you consider that in reality 2012 was as wet as any recorded year in prior history then it is obvious that weather patterns are changing.Previous wettest was only 6.6mm more in the whole year (2000), which may be due to measurement error due to wind, etc. Whether it is a permanent (global warming) or natural long cycle weather change is down to opinion as there doesnt seem to be enough validated data to judge IMHO Personally I dont believe the global warming stuff as it is too vague but there is without doubt there is a warming of the natural environment.
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| Posted by blackfox: Sun Jan 6th, 2013 14:26 | 3rd Post |
| i know this jonathan ,but two weeks ago the snow line was nearly at sea level ,now its all but gone .you can just about see the big one from there and definitely can from rhualt hill on the A55 as i head there .friday was like a summers day up here virtually a T shirt day
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| Posted by jk: Sun Jan 6th, 2013 14:53 | 4th Post |
| Well today it was 25C outside in the sun and 18C inside the house, shade air temperature is 17C. We would expect a Jan average of 14C so it is up.
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| Posted by blackfox: Sun Jan 6th, 2013 15:04 | 5th Post |
if you don't stop taking the pee ,i will press the report button every five minutes for a hour 
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| Posted by jk: Sun Jan 6th, 2013 15:56 | 6th Post |
Oh no I will need to come to UK and get some bird pictures with you.
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| Posted by Doug: Sun Jan 6th, 2013 16:49 | 7th Post |
44-45° here the other day - thankfully not humid so the ac worked 
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| Posted by jk: Sun Jan 6th, 2013 17:03 | 8th Post |
| Well lets hope you dont get any fires like in Tasmania. Adelaide is pretty dry at the best of times but in summer it is hot and dry. And you still have a couple more months of heat. Stay safe.
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| Posted by Kathy Baker: Mon Jan 7th, 2013 00:09 | 9th Post |
jk wroteDon't worry. It's already too late 
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| Posted by KenRay: Mon Jan 7th, 2013 00:21 | 10th Post |
| I think it is more or less accepted that weather runs in cycles. Some longer than others and maybe even cycles within cycles. At only 79 years of age I probably haven't seen enough cycles to be a prognosticator of them. I know I have lived in southern Arizona for over 30 years and few years have been the same in relation to weather. One Christmas you can go swimming and the next Christmas it snows.I had a tomato plant that lived in the garden for 2 years and produced tomatos and one Christmas I planted a Poinsettia recieved for Christmas near the front door and it grew to 15ft tall. What does all this show,probably nothing but it does show that weather is in constant change. Some years bird migrations are huge some years there are almost none (and I pay attention being an avid birder). It does make an interesting discussion though I doubt there will be much concensus.
____________________ Kenneth Ray |
| Posted by jk: Mon Jan 7th, 2013 03:07 | 11th Post |
| I'm not an advocate for doing nothing but I think the Al Gore camp are scaremongers with an agenda. Not sure I know what they want. I am sure we should be using less natural resources i.e. oil, minerals and should be expending effort to encourage recycling, repairing rather than go get a new one!
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| Posted by richw: Mon Jan 7th, 2013 03:37 | 12th Post |
KenRay wrote: I think it is more or less accepted that weather runs in cycles. Some longer than others and maybe even cycles within cycles. At only 79 years of age I probably haven't seen enough cycles to be a prognosticator of them. I know I have lived in southern Arizona for over 30 years and few years have been the same in relation to weather. One Christmas you can go swimming and the next Christmas it snows.I had a tomato plant that lived in the garden for 2 years and produced tomatos and one Christmas I planted a Poinsettia recieved for Christmas near the front door and it grew to 15ft tall. What does all this show,probably nothing but it does show that weather is in constant change. Some years bird migrations are huge some years there are almost none (and I pay attention being an avid birder). It does make an interesting discussion though I doubt there will be much concensus.I guess it depends on your definition of consensus. For example in excess of 99% of meteorologists qualified to PHD level world wide believe that man made pollution is having a definite and measurable affect on climate change. (Source National Geographic magazine) In many circles 99% would be considered a consensus.
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| Posted by jk: Mon Jan 7th, 2013 03:44 | 13th Post |
richw wrote: KenRay wrote:I'd certainly agree that man made pollution is having a definite and measurable effect on the climate which is is why I think that a reduction in the use of natural resources such as oil and minerals is made.I think it is more or less accepted that weather runs in cycles. Some longer than others and maybe even cycles within cycles. At only 79 years of age I probably haven't seen enough cycles to be a prognosticator of them. I know I have lived in southern Arizona for over 30 years and few years have been the same in relation to weather. One Christmas you can go swimming and the next Christmas it snows.I had a tomato plant that lived in the garden for 2 years and produced tomatos and one Christmas I planted a Poinsettia recieved for Christmas near the front door and it grew to 15ft tall. What does all this show,probably nothing but it does show that weather is in constant change. Some years bird migrations are huge some years there are almost none (and I pay attention being an avid birder). It does make an interesting discussion though I doubt there will be much concensus.I guess it depends on your definition of consensus. For example in excess of 99% of meteorologists qualified to PHD level world wide believe that man made pollution is having a definite and measurable affect on climate change. (Source National Geographic magazine) This book is a very interesting read SMALL IS BEAUTIFUL by E. F. SCHUMACHER It brings into focus the falseness of modern economic theories.
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| Posted by richw: Mon Jan 7th, 2013 03:47 | 14th Post |
jk wrote: I'm not an advocate for doing nothing but I think the Al Gore camp are scaremongers with an agenda. Not sure I know what they want.I agree - I think solar energy - especially with the way costs have plummeted in the last two years for solar panels is significantly under utilised. Currently 3% of Germanys electricity usage is from Solar sources, some analysts believe this will be at 25% by 2050 and payback times on the investment are down to single figures in years as householders sell back excess to the grid. Now 3% doesn't sound like a lot (but its a lot more than any other country) but it's the kind of incremental change that starts to make a difference combined with other advances. It's not popular with the power companies however as most of the revenue from solar generation is going back to the households that have generated it rather than the corporation. I don't understand why it's not being more actively pursued though, this done to the max would be economically sound and make a significant contribution to the overall picture.
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| Posted by Eric: Mon Jan 7th, 2013 10:35 | 15th Post |
richw wrote: jk wrote:Actually...it's very noticeable in Germany. When I was there in May we remarked on how many houses had 'spoilt' their lovely red tiled rooves with solar panels!I'm not an advocate for doing nothing but I think the Al Gore camp are scaremongers with an agenda. Not sure I know what they want.I agree - I think solar energy - especially with the way costs have plummeted in the last two years for solar panels is significantly under utilised. 
____________________ Eric |
| Posted by Constable: Mon Jan 7th, 2013 11:56 | 16th Post |
| No question that solar is part of the future energy package. It is not the only component though. Every region and community will have to find a package of sources that fit the local conditions. The problem is not primarily one of technology (the challenges are being and will be solved) but rather one of social acceptance. From the trivial NIMBY response to having wind generators in your locality to the question of changing social practice (recycling, end of life cycle materials reclamation, longer life cycles) and expectations (are you prepared to accept a change in life style or not to expect an ongoing increase). The equation is a very complex one (and fortunately keeps me employed in both jobs). The Schumacher book recommended by Jonathon is essential reading for anyone in this area of research. Ed
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| Posted by jk: Mon Jan 7th, 2013 12:04 | 17th Post |
| Well I try not to switch on lights until it is dark but am completely profligate when it comes to my technology and I also leave the units with the external PSU plugged in and switched on so this uses a few extra watts even when the unit is switched off I try to recycle as much as possible and I also try to not throw away my old electronics until they break down as I like old toys as well as new ones. I still have an old circular slide rule that I was given 48 years ago! It is wonderful as it needs no electricity. However I also do a lot of my calculations in my head as that is the way I was taught. When I was at school you got maths right or wrong, binary. No marks for getting the right thought but the wrong answer!
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| Posted by Eric: Mon Jan 7th, 2013 13:09 | 18th Post |
jk wrote:. I still have an old circular slide rule that I was given 48 years ago!Is that an Otis King?
____________________ Eric |
| Posted by Eric: Mon Jan 7th, 2013 13:16 | 19th Post |
Constable wrote: No question that solar is part of the future energy package. It is not the only component though. Every region and community will have to find a package of sources that fit the local conditions.I feel the UK is lagging behind with incentivising domestic energy generation. I have a large south facing roof crying out for solar panels....but it will take me 15-20 years to recover installation costs. I don't plan to be living here in 15 years ...so unless I can lump this cost onto the sale price, it's lost money. One of my neighbours has just had panels installed and I will monitor his return with interest.
____________________ Eric |
| Posted by Robert: Mon Jan 7th, 2013 13:39 | 20th Post |
| Eric wrote: "I feel the UK is lagging behind with incentivising domestic energy generation. I have a large south facing roof crying out for solar panels....but it will take me 15-20 years to recover installation costs. I don't plan to be living here in 15 years ...so unless I can lump this cost onto the sale price, it's lost money.<br> One of my neighbours has just had panels installed and I will monitor his return with interest." I have a friend who is having panels fitted, his concerns match Eric's. He is having his electricity supplier install the panels at their expense, he will still have some saving on the cost of his electricity with due allowance for his non investment. He believes that it will enhance the value of his property because it brings savings on the energy bill with no capital investment or risk, on his part. What the???  JK?
____________________ Robert. |
| Posted by jk: Mon Jan 7th, 2013 13:42 | 21st Post |
Eric wrote: jk wrote:.I still have an old circular slide rule that I was given 48 years ago!Is that an Otis King? No it is a plastic one that has a plastic insert that also has all sorts of useful Chemistry, Physic and SI/Imperial/US unit interconversion information. It was a trade gift from BOC to my Dad that I acquired in 1962. In fact it must be 50 years old last year not 48!! It is now antique.
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| Posted by Eric: Mon Jan 7th, 2013 14:11 | 22nd Post |
Robert wrote:Eric wrote: Hope he checked the contract terms? There are some deals that in effect 'rent' your roof space. Fine until you come to sell the house and it's a conditional of sale to keep them there at a rental cost to the new owner!
____________________ Eric |
| Posted by richw: Mon Jan 7th, 2013 21:56 | 23rd Post |
Eric wrote:Constable wrote:No question that solar is part of the future energy package. It is not the only component though. Every region and community will have to find a package of sources that fit the local conditions.I feel the UK is lagging behind with incentivising domestic energy generation. I have a large south facing roof crying out for solar panels....but it will take me 15-20 years to recover installation costs. I don't plan to be living here in 15 years ...so unless I can lump this cost onto the sale price, it's lost money. That payback sounds a little out of date Eric, the cost is plummeting day by day the moment. If you own them then free electricity would enhance the house value but whilst the cost is going down for new installations the value it adds to the house will also decrease.
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| Posted by Eric: Tue Jan 8th, 2013 04:42 | 24th Post |
jk wrote: Eric wrote:Jan and I both used to have the good old Otis for our calcs back at UKAEA in the 60's. I bought the wife one off ebay a year or so back as a small momento. Still managed to remember how to use it after 40 years absence.jk wrote:.I still have an old circular slide rule that I was given 48 years ago!Is that an Otis King?
____________________ Eric |
| Posted by Constable: Tue Jan 8th, 2013 05:03 | 25th Post |
| Is the Otis that wierd round one? Ed
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| Posted by richw: Tue Jan 8th, 2013 05:26 | 26th Post |
| As of yesterday the Average temp for Australia has been over 39C for the longest consistent period on record, and there is a good chance that the average temp will beat previous record set in 1972. The effect is potentially devastating with fires all over. A good many friends and some family are affected by what is happening in Illawarra and Shoalhaven, with the first ever catastrophic condition alert ever being issued in NSW issued in four suburbs today including these. As I write a number of good friends are out fighting fires, this is what climate change means in Australia, today was declared the most dangerous day on record.
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| Posted by Squarerigger: Tue Jan 8th, 2013 06:42 | 27th Post |
| Very sorry to Australia under such serious wildfire conditions. Hope all goes well for your friends and family.
____________________ -------------------------------------------- Gary |
| Posted by blackfox: Tue Jan 8th, 2013 07:36 | 28th Post |
| hope you stay safe and well rich,seen it on the news it looks bad
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| Posted by richw: Tue Jan 8th, 2013 08:05 | 29th Post |
blackfox wrote:hope you stay safe and well rich,seen it on the news it looks bad No problem for me personally but I have family in Nowra and lots of friends as well, some of them in the CFA.
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| Posted by Eric: Tue Jan 8th, 2013 08:53 | 30th Post |
Constable wrote: Is the Otis that wierd round one?Thats been said of me as well!!! Yes.... Attachment: OtisKing_1.JPG (Downloaded 28 times)
____________________ Eric |
| Posted by KenRay: Tue Jan 8th, 2013 11:56 | 31st Post |
| Never actually used a circular one except for aircraft navigation. In college I used a Deitzen (sp) Log Log Duplex Decitrig which was more or less the standard and in it's brown leather case hung at the side of almost all Engineering students. After college I used mostly a 6" Post or Pickett (can't remember as that was a LOOONG time ago) that was Aluminum and If memory serves was Yellow. Most carried it in their pencil protector in their shirt pocket. As far as global warming goes for every expert you show The other view can show an equal number with equal qualifications. Seems like I remember that all the hoopla about faking data came from British Universities, but that too was probably exaggerated here in the colonies. From some studies I have read all the pollution since the beginning of time attributed to mankind is surpassed by even the eruption of Mt St Helen much less Krakatoa in the 1800's which left the skys changed around the world for several years. Now wheather these are facts or opinions I will certainly leave up to your superior intellect as I am reluctant to make such positive statements of knowledge my own self. I actually once had a liberal thought but on further introspection realized I was incorrect.
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| Posted by jk: Tue Jan 8th, 2013 11:58 | 32nd Post |
| Mine looks identical to this one. Attachment: 600st_front.gif (Downloaded 25 times)
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| Posted by Eric: Tue Jan 8th, 2013 14:35 | 33rd Post |
| The Otis also doubles as a weapon when other mad scientists annoy you. It can be used as a club....or inserted!!! Back to weather thread topic..... I've been told my neighbour shelled out £10000 for his solar panel installation and expects a 8-10 year payback...though it adds saleable value to his home as well. Unless I am missing something on the 'feed in tariff' scheme, my £800 pa electric bill would take longer to payback!
____________________ Eric |
| Posted by richw: Tue Jan 8th, 2013 16:01 | 34th Post |
Eric wrote:The Otis also doubles as a weapon when other mad scientists annoy you. You can normally sell the excess back to the grid, and on occasion you may need more than it will produce so it's complex, but if you're neighbour spent 10K a month ago, it'll be less now. They have hit the stage in production volume like computer memory did where the output is getting better and better and the price is plummeting. Cost of camera memory cards would be a good parallel.
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| Posted by Eric: Tue Jan 8th, 2013 17:46 | 35th Post |
richw wrote:Eric wrote: He had it fitted in September! Interesting, may have to make some enquiries. :baffled:
____________________ Eric |
| Posted by KenRay: Tue Jan 8th, 2013 23:41 | 36th Post |
| That's basically the circular slide rule I remember. The circulars are more accurate than the regular rules as they are in fact longer therefore the divisions are more accurately read.
____________________ Kenneth Ray |
| Posted by jk: Wed Jan 9th, 2013 03:34 | 37th Post |
KenRay wrote: That's basically the circular slide rule I remember. The circulars are more accurate than the regular rules as they are in fact longer therefore the divisions are more accurately read. I used to use mine all the time until 1973 when I went to university where I got an electronic calculator.
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| Posted by KenRay: Wed Jan 9th, 2013 10:53 | 38th Post |
| Sadly when I went to the University they didn't yet have pocket calculators. They had the absolute latest in wind-tunnels and animal husbandry facilities but ,alas,no computers. When I took drafting it was with pencil pen and ink. I think they are called the 'old' days though some probably refer to them as the dark ages. Beleive it or not the classrooms and dorms were not even air conditioned. For some reason we managed to get an education in spite of all this.
____________________ Kenneth Ray |
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